What could go wrong with Dubai?


Short recap on Earth2.io, the current status of the game, and what's this all about...

If you never heard of Earth2, you should definitely check it out. One way to start is directly in the platform (www.earth2.io) or, if you like to unfurl uncertainty, assumptions, conspiracy from entropy and chaos just join the game's official Discord server, good luck and bon appetit!


Earth2 is a unique game concept where you buy virtual land and prepare your real estate portfolio for advancing in the game's resource-based economy. You can create $$$ revenue streams from the property and resource trading opportunities, and, because the game it's in its (very) early stage of development, you will be a member of the community that helps to shape this amazing game. It is maybe the best game concept currently developing and I am glad I joined it in early December 2020.


There are 300.000 registered users (players) who spent more than $35 Million since December 2020 until February 21st, 2021 (this is when we estimated the gross revenue)
More than 47 Million tiles (10x10 meters squares in the Earth's map) were purchased.
The highest price per tile is $47 in United States and users still buy new land increasing the price even more.
Cheapest new land can still be purchased at $0.5 per tile in cool megacities.

Join the platform, have a look around, engage in the Discord conversations (some are really juicy), find a community that match your values and views, and enjoy!


Back on Dubai. Dubai and few countries are closed, and players cannot buy tiles there. Not going to go through the reasons why, but it was a good strategy to keep some important countries 'for later' and use it to revive the hype while the team keeps working on the backlog to develop the future phases of the game.

I say that opening Dubai is a very important move. And because I'm thinking "long term", I say the move is more important for Earth2 than for its players. I will explain why, I just hope I'm right. Either way, opening Dubai without bugs, drama and major issues is important and long awaited.



Two "Tricky" situations we foresee in the Dubai/UAE opening


The price per tile in Dubai will increase too fast, and it will reach the lowest price per tile currently available in the game ($0.5) almost instantly


Keep in mind that the opening of the UAE is expected for a very long time and the hype around it is huge. This means that once players will know the exact moment of the opening, a large number of users will try to buy at the same time.


Considering the price calculation formula, after 170.000 tiles are sold the price will reach $0.54 per tile.
If only 20% of the total players (60.000) will start buying at the same time at opening bell, we will have the price increase in less than a few seconds.
This situation can create a real mess in at least two probable scenarios:
  1. Price is updated after each property purchase/transaction - users will see one price before buying and the transaction can go through with a higher price (due to the speed of purchasing and, implicitly price updating with lightspeed/multiple times per millisecond)

  2. Price is updated in time cycles (eq.: once every x seconds) - users will experience the same probable situation as above but with higher deltas

Mitigation

Now, the first solution to the "high speed" problem is also the argument I'm making on the importance of this event in Earth2's business plan. This is only speculation, an idea we had in AGV Discord after they announced the first countdown:


Start with an initial price of $0.01 like International Territory.

What would this mean for the players:

- a decelerated price increase (due to a lower base in the exponential formula) so everybody will have the chance to buy

- an opportunity to really buy massive properties in the same locations and build the biggest megacity in the Earth2 game.

- a little bit of extra time to properly execute their city designs (grids, structures etc.)

- affordable for a much higher player base


What would this mean for the Earth2 business plan:

- More money. The trick with a lower initial price in an exponential growth formula is that they will have higher revenue than a higher initial price. If buying will stop at $0.5, significantly MORE tiles would have been sold in this scenario than in the previous.

- More players with more properties ready for Resources phase. If the initial price is $0.01, for the price to reach $0.5 players must purchase 400.000 tiles (almost 4 times more tiles than in the previous scenario)


Overlapping tile selection from different players will create frustration, depression, laptops thrown and smashed, etc.




Most of us will have ONE chance to buy in Dubai at a price better than $0.5 per tile. If we do not get the first two purchases from the first attempt, we've missed it. Completely.


What will happen: users approaching this 5 seconds Dubai "Black Friday" event by trying to secure a 750 tiles property in popular areas will most probably select the same tiles. When purchasing, the player that pushes the "buy" button too late will most probably get an error and will need to select again. When we are talking about milliseconds, that's a lost opportunity.


Mitigation

1. Keep the initial price for the entire user session.

Maybe not the best option but it could be an interesting mechanics.

2. Automatically eliminate the previously purchased tiles in the selection (the ones the faster user got).

This could also be a fun thing to watch but could lead to a lot of very small properties being purchased. But hey! It's something!


The AGV Quest


The Quest ended with two winners; total value of prizes: E$1200.


Thank you for reading my article!

We, at Alchera Global Venture started a quest to prepare you for the Earth2 official Easter Egg Hunt that will start later in March. Consider this a "training" campaign, and, the chance to win the big prize: a property with more than E$400 in current value. There is only one prize, so make sure you are the first one to finish the quest!


How to enter the quest?

To enter our quest, start here, solve the riddle, and advance to the next one. (the link was removed because the Quest ended)

What is the quest about?

You have to solve a series of riddles. Each riddle you solve will get you to the next one until you win.


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